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last updated Aug. 6, 2018
published Aug. 6, 2018
Poll No. 92 - Oslo Accords 25th Anniversary
Read more:  Oslo Accords, Palestinian Authority, US policy, US foreign policy, Donald Trump, deal of the century, peace process, World Cup, religion, Jerusalem, Fatah, Fateh, Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, Marwan Barghouthi, Mohammed Dahlan, reconciliation
Summary:
Rise in the standing of the leadership after rejection of the deal of the century
Majority: The Oslo Accords harmed national interest
Majority did not follow/watch the World Cup; Brazil is the Palestinians' favorite team

A public opinion poll conducted by the Jerusalem Media and Communication Centre, in cooperation with Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, showed the majority of Palestinians polled, 60.6% support the Palestinian leadership's position not to accept the United States as the sole mediator in the peace process. However 28.1% agree with the decision to refuse to deal with the US after its recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

A majority of 80.3% expected that the "Deal of the Century" being promoted by the US administration will not produce anything acceptable to the Palestinians, as opposed to 6.8% who said the contrary. Meanwhile, the poll showed that Palestinian society is divided over the idea of returning to peace negotiations, whereby 49.1% support this and 45.6% oppose it.

Minor improvements in the leadership's standing
It seems that the position of the Palestinian leadership regarding the 'Deal of the Century' after the US declaration of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel has led to some improvement in its standing. The percentage of those who trust President Mahmoud Abbas rose to 11.1% in this poll after it was 10.6% in January of this year. Furthermore, there was a rise in the percentage of those who trust Fatah more than other factions from 22.3% to 25% over the same period.

Elections
In response to the question of who would you elect if elections were held in which only President Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas politburo chief Isma'el Haniyeh ran, the larger percentage of those polled, 35.3% said they would vote for President Abbas while 19.3% said they would vote for Haniyeh. What is also noteworthy is that 45.4% of respondents said they did not know or had no answer about who they would vote for.

If elections were held and President Abbas did not run, the larger percentage, 11.7% said they would vote for Marwan Barghouti, followed by Isma'el Haniyeh, 11.6% (8.1%  in the West Bank opposed to 16.7% in Gaza), followed by Mohammed Dahlan 8.3%  (0.4% in the West Bank and 20% in Gaza). It is also noteworthy that 55.6% said they did not know or had no answer as to who they would vote for.

The perpetuation of the PNA
In regards to the evaluation of the performance of the PNA, the majority of those polled, 57.5% said it was good, as opposed to 42.5% who said it was bad. These percentages constitute the continuation of nearly the same evaluation in recent years. As for the future of the PNA, the majority of respondents, 59.1% supported the perpetuation of the PNA and saw the need to maintain it as opposed to 29.6% who said there was a need to dissolve it.

The Oslo Accords are increasingly seen as harmful to the national interest
On the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the signing of the Oslo Accords, the larger percentage of respondents, 46.5% said the accords had harmed Palestinian national interests while 11.9% claimed they had served Palestinian national interests and 34.0% said the accords had made no difference.
Hence, there has been a continued rise in the percentage of those who see the Oslo Accords to be harmful to national interests, given that it was 33.6% in March, 2013.

In terms of opinions towards the Oslo Accords, the majority of those polled, 61.8% said they opposed them while 24.3% said they supported them. This constitutes a rise in the opposition to the accords, which was 48.3% in March, 2013.

Palestinians are critical of the last Palestinian National Council convention
It seems the convention of the PNC at the beginning of this year did not mean much to Palestinian public opinion. The majority of respondents, 54% said the latest PNC session had no influence at the level of achieving Palestinian national unity, while 39.7% said the session had decreased the chances for unity; 6.3% claimed the opposite.

In terms of the impact of holding the PNC in general, the larger percentage of those polled, 46.9% said it made no difference on Palestinian national interests while 28.6% said it harmed the Palestinian national interest and 7.9% claimed it served it.

Palestinians remain pessimistic about reconciliation
In terms of the salary crisis in Gaza, the larger percentage of respondents, 37.8% held the PNA in Ramallah responsible (48% in Gaza and 30.8% in the West Bank) while 29.3% held the Hamas-led government in Gaza responsible and 11.3% held both sides responsible.

It seems the Palestinian public is still pessimistic regarding the likelihood of reconciliation. The majority of respondents, 56.9% expressed their pessimism towards the likelihood that the reconciliation agreement signed in October, 2017 would be implemented as opposed to 35.5% who said the opposite.

Sources of news
The poll showed that the majority of respondents, 39.3% depend on social media as a source of news, followed by 28% who depend on television, 17.3% who depend on news websites, 7.4% on radio and 1.4% on newspapers.

People, religion and marriage
The poll showed that the majority of respondents, 81.7% opposed the marriage of young women under 18, while 76.9% said they opposed multiple wives. Meanwhile, 76.8% said they did not shake the hand of the other sex, with the majority attributing this to religious purposes. Also, 60.5% said the Palestinian Personal Status Law should be based on Islamic Sharia, with 97.8% saying that religion is an important part of their lives.

The Palestinian people and the Football World Cup
The poll included a question to respondents about whether they watched the 2018 World Cup. It is noteworthy that 70.3% said they did not follow it, while 14.4% said they followed/watched all or most of the matches. 15.3% said they watched some of them.

As to which team the people cheered for the most during the World Cup, Brazil came in first place, at 31.5%, followed by Argentina at 13.8%, Spain at 10.4%, Germany at 9.3% and France at 9.0%.

News
Slain Mabhouh admitted to killing Israeli soldiers
Feb. 8, 2010
Israel hedges on time frame for Jerusalem projects
May 10, 2010
US dismayed by Israeli move, sees Syrian interest
Sept. 28, 2010


Multimedia
WATCH: Hamas cartoon about Gilad Shalit
Osama Hamdan addresses al-Qaeda
Carterzzz*zs Elders discuss Palestinian reconciliation
Riz Khan: Is one state solution viable?


Documents
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's Briefing on the Middle East Peace Process
US Letter of Assurances on the Terms of the Peace, 1991
Ariel Sharon's Speech at the Aqaba Summit


Publications
Poll No. 85 - Intifada, the PA and ISIS
Poll No. 31 Part I, March 1999 - On Palestinian Attitudes Towards Politics
Poll No. 65, October 2008 - Palestinians’ opinions on the 15th anniversary of the Oslo agreement


Background
US foreign policy
War on Gaza
Sheikh Jarrah


Resources
Settlers push to evict two more East Jerusalem families, Nir Hasson, April 7, 2010, Haaretz online
Egypt's Gaza wall months from completion - Israel, Reuters, December 30, 2009
Clinton says Israel has right to defend itself, Reuters, January 27, 2009


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